Izindaba - Amathrendi Akamuva kanye Nokuvela Kwesakhiwo Ekuhwebeni Kwensimbi KwaseShayina Ngo-2026

Ngo-2026, umkhakha wokuthumela insimbi eShayina wathuthukiswa kakhulu ngesakhiwo. Ngenxa yomthelela ophindwe kabili wemithethonqubo eqinile yokuphakelwa kwasekhaya kanye nokunciphisa izinzuzo zemikhiqizo yensimbi, inani eliphelele lokuthumela insimbi eShayina kwikota yokuqala (Q1) ka-2026 lehle ngo-2026.8% ngonyaka, okuqeda umkhuba wokwanda okuqhubekayo kwevolumu yokuthumela kwamanye amazwe obekulokhu kuqhubeka iminyaka eminingana.imikhiqizo yensimbi ekhethekile enenani eliphezulu—eyenzelwe izinkambu ezithile zesicelo—ifinyelele ukukhula okuqondiwe ngaphakathi kwezimakethe ezihlukile. Lokhu kushintsha kubonisa ukuguquka kwemboni kusuka kumodeli yendabuko"ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ngezindleko eziphansi, ngobuningi"ku-a"kugxile enzuzweni, kuqhutshwa ubuchwepheshe"umkhuba wokuhweba owela imingcele.

isakhiwo sensimbi yeqembu lensimbi yasebukhosini

Ukuhlaziywa Kokusebenza Kokuthunyelwa Kwemikhiqizo Yensimbi Eyinhloko

1. Insimbi Eqediwe Kancane (Ama-Billets)

Ukubeka Amasu:Indlela yokugwema izithiyo zokuhweba futhi isebenze njengesixhumanisi sokuvimbela eziketangeni zokukhiqiza eziwela imingcele.

Izindawo Eziyinhloko Zokuvakashela:INingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia (iVietnam, i-Indonesia), iMpumalanga Ephakathi, kanye neNyakatho Afrika.

Njengoba bebhekene nezindleko eziqinile zokulwa nokulahla izimpahla ezibhekiswe emikhiqizweni yensimbi esiqediwe, izigayo zensimbi zasekhaya ziye zashintsha ukuze zibeke phambili ukuthunyelwa kwensimbi esiqediwe ngokuphelele ukuze kuncishiswe izingozi zokuhweba; kwikota yokuqala ka-2026, inani lezinsimbi zensimbi ezithunyelwa kwamanye amazwe lenyuke ngo-2026.260% unyaka nonyakaAbakhiqizi ngaphakathi kwe-i-ASEANisifunda singenisa le mikhiqizo yensimbi eqediwe kancane evela eShayina ukuze icutshungulwe ibe yizimpahla eziqediwe. Lolu hlobo lokubambisana phakathi kwemingcele alugcini nje ngokugwema izithiyo zokuhweba ngempumelelo—ngaleyo ndlela lugcina ukufinyelela emakethe ezifundeni ezinqunyelwe—kodwa futhi luthuthukisa ukwabiwa kwezabelo zokukhishwa kwekhabhoni yasekhaya futhi lunegalelo ekuzinzisweni kwezintambo zokuphakelwa kwensimbi zamazwe ngamazwe.

2. Insimbi ye-Silicon

Ukubeka Amasu:Umhlinzeki wezinto ezibalulekile zokuthuthukiswa kwengqalasizinda yomhlaba wonke ohlobene noshintsho lwamandla.

Izindawo Eziyinhloko Zokuvakashela:I-European Union (EU) kanye neBrazil (eNingizimu Melika).

Ngaphakathi kwephothifoliyo yokuthumela insimbi eShayina ngo-2026, insimbi ye-silicon yavela njengengxenye ekhombisa ukukhula kwenani okuvelele kakhulu.Idatha yentela yembula ukuthi ngoMashi 2026, inani lokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe lensimbi ye-silicon engaqondiswanga lafinyelela amathani angu-42,800, okuphawula izinyanga ezintathu ezilandelanayo zokukhula kwenyanga nenyanga.Ukuthuthukiswa kwegridi yamandla e-EU, ukwanda kwamaphrojekthi wamandla avuselelekayo, kanye nokwakhiwa kwengqalasizinda yokushaja izimoto zikagesi (EV) kuyaqhubeka nokukhiqiza isidingo semakethe esinamandla semikhiqizo yensimbi ye-silicon esezingeni eliphezulu yaseShayina. Naphezu kokuqaliswa okuzayo kwe-"Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism" (CBAM) ye-EU, imikhiqizo yensimbi ye-silicon ethole isitifiketi se-carbon ephansi igcina ukuncintisana okuqinile emakethe, ihola izinzuzo eziphakeme ngo-18% kunemikhiqizo yensimbi yendabuko.

3. Izakhiwo Zensimbi kanye Namapayipi Obunjiniyela Obukhethekile

Ukubeka Amasu:Ukusebenzisa amaphrojekthi engqalasizinda amakhulu e-"Belt and Road 2.0" ukuze kufezwe ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe okuhlanganisiwe kwe-"Product + Service".

Izindawo Eziyinhloko Zokuvakashela:IMpumalanga Ephakathi (Saudi Arabia, UAE), iMpumalanga Afrika (Ethiopia, Nigeria), kanye neNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia (Indonesia).

Ekuqaleni kuka-2026, ukushintsha kwezepolitiki eMpumalanga Ephakathi kwabangela ukushoda kwensimbi yezinga lobunjiniyela esifundeni. Amaphrojekthi e-Flagship—aboniswe yisinyathelo sedolobha elihlakaniphile laseSaudi Arabia i-"NEOM"—aqhubekile nokugqugquzela isidingo esikhulu samapayipi amakhulu kanye nezakhiwo zensimbi ezihlanganisiwe.Ngo-2026, inkomba yokuzinza kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwemikhiqizo ekhethekile yamapayipi yaseShayina yafinyelela ku-96%.Amabhizinisi asekhaya ashintshe ngempumelelo esuka ekuthumeleni imikhiqizo kwamanye amazwe kuphela aya ekuhlinzekeni ngezixazululo ezihlanganisiwe ezihlanganisa "imikhiqizo, izinsizakalo zobunjiniyela, kanye nokusekelwa kobuchwepheshe," ngaleyo ndlela ethuthukisa ngempumelelo ingxenye enenani eyengeziwe yokuthunyelwa kwawo kwamanye amazwe ngokubamba iqhaza kumaphrojekthi e-"Belt and Road 2.0".

4. Izinqwaba Zeshidi Lensimbi kanye Nezinqwaba Zepayipi Lensimbi

Ukubeka Amasu:Abazuzi abaqondile bokutshalwa kwezimali emhlabeni wonke ekubhekaneni nesimo sezulu kanye nengqalasizinda yasogwini.

Izindawo Eziyinhloko Zokuvakashela:INingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia (iPhilippines, iMalaysia) kanye neMelika Ephakathi.

Ukutshalwa kwezimali emhlabeni jikelele ekuvikelweni kogu kanye nengqalasizinda yokuvimbela/ukunciphisa izinhlekelele kunikeze ugqozi olunamandla ekukhuleni kokuthunyelwa kwenqwaba yensimbi ngo-2026. Okuphawulekayo ukuthi amaphrojekthi okuvikela ugu ePhilippines kanye nezinhlelo zokukhulisa amachweba ePanama abangele ukukhula okungaphezu kuka-40% kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe okubonwe kulezi zifunda. Nakuba izithiyo zokuhweba eNyakatho Melika zinciphise ukuthunyelwa kwensimbi yokwakha ejwayelekile, ukutshalwa kwezimali okwandayo yizomnotho "zeNingizimu Yomhlaba" engqalasizinda engamelani nokuzamazama komhlaba, yokulawula izikhukhula, kanye nobunjiniyela basolwandle kunikeze isisekelo esiqinile sokufunwa kwemakethe eyinhloko yensimbi yokwakha esebenza kahle kakhulu.

5. Ama-Engeli Ensimbi kanye Namaphrofayili Esakhiwo Akhethekile

Ukubeka Amasu:Sikhonza umkhuba wokuvuselela ukukhiqiza emhlabeni wonke kanye nochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwemishini esindayo.

Izindawo Eziyinhloko Zokuvakashela:I-India neMexico.

Nakuba i-India ikwazile kakhulu ukuzimela emikhiqizweni yensimbi eqediwe ejwayelekile, imikhakha yayo yokukhiqiza izimoto kanye nemishini esindayo isalokhu ithembele kakhulu kumaphrofayili ezakhiwo aqinile angeniswa e-China, kanti izinga lokuthembela ekungenisweni kwezimpahla lidlula u-35%. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukukhula "okuseduze" emkhakheni wokukhiqiza waseMexico kudale isidingo esikhulu samaphrofayili ezakhiwo zase-China—ikakhulukazi ekwakhiweni kwamafektri amasha kanye nezindawo—okwenza iMexico ivele ngo-2026 njengenye yezimakethe ezikhula ngokushesha kakhulu zokuthunyelwa kwemikhiqizo yensimbi ekhethekile e-China.

Umbono Wokuthumela Ngaphandle Wemboni Ka-2026

Ngo-2026, ukuthunyelwa kwensimbi eShayina kulindeleke ukuthi kubonise iphrofayili yesakhiwo ebonakala ngokuthi "umthamo ophansi, inani eliphakeme." Nakuba inani lokuthunyelwa kwensimbi minyaka yonke kulindeleke ukuthi lihlehle kusukela ezingeni eliphezulu eliqoshwe ngo-2024 nango-2025, inani eliphelele lokuthunyelwa kwensimbi lilungele ukufeza ukukhula konyaka nonyaka okungu-3% kuya ku-5%, okubangelwa ukwenza ngcono nokuthuthukiswa kwengxube yomkhiqizo.

Inqubomgomo yelayisense ephoqelekile yokuthunyelwa kwensimbi kwamanye amazwe, ehlelelwe ukusetshenziswa ngo-2026, izophakamisa kakhulu izithiyo zokungena embonini. Ngenxa yalokho, izinsiza zokuhweba zaphesheya kwezilwandle ezisezingeni eliphezulu zizoqhubeka nokuhlangana ngaphakathi kwamabhizinisi amakhulu kahulumeni afanelekayo kanye nezinkampani ezizimele ezihamba phambili zensimbi eluhlaza. Uma sibheka phambili, umkhakha wokuthunyelwa kwensimbi waseShayina ulungele ukuqala ushintsho oluhlelekile—ukushintsha kusuka kumodeli wokuncintisana osekelwe ezindleleni eziphansi kanye nokulingana komkhiqizo uye endleleni yentuthuko egxile kubuchwepheshe obuphezulu, ukukhiqizwa kwekhabhoni ephansi, kanye nezinto ezenziwe ngokwezifiso—ngaleyo ndlela kuqhubekela phambili ukuthuthukiswa kwesakhiwo sendawo yokuhweba kwangaphandle kwensimbi.

IQEMBU LASEBUKHOSINI

Ikheli

Indawo yezimboni zokuthuthukiswa kweKangsheng,
Isifunda saseWuqing, idolobha laseTianjin, eChina.

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Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Meyi-06-2026